Bitcoin will face a reality check if the first US ETFs are approved.

Oct 26
This week, the greatest digital asset increased by 16%, breaking the $35,000 mark for the first time since 2022. On the other hand, rising Treasury yields and increasing geopolitical uncertainty are causing a decline in global markets.

Advocates of virtual assets contend that spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) slated by firms like BlackRock Inc. will encourage broader acceptance of bitcoin; however, the exact moment of any authorization from a cautious Securities and Exchange Commission is yet unknown.
Hayden Hughes, co-founder of the social trading platform Alpha Impact, stated, "I expect there will be a news sale if approved. The markets have already priced in the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF."

The following technical chart patterns suggest that the Bitcoin rally has continued, and options bets suggest that some speculators believe the cryptocurrency may rise as high as $40,000 before stalling.

Fibonacci ratios, which are proportions found in nature and are also used to identify market reversals, suggest that a bounce back from the level close below $36,000 will be difficult for Bitcoin.

For the first time since 2021, the weekly Bitcoin Relative Strength Index, which measures momentum, crossed above 70. Readings above 70 are seen as "overbought," indicating a lower likelihood of a replay of the recent, intense rises.

According to Caroline Mauron, co-founder of digital asset derivatives liquidity provider OrBit. Markets, "frantic speculation about impending ETF approval may be symptomatic of other, more structural bullish factors, such as the steady unwinding of industry excesses from the previous year and the resumption of the macroeconomic inflation hedging narrative."

The biggest cryptocurrency options exchange, Deribit, has released derivatives data that demonstrates a notable concentration of positive bets on Bitcoin hitting $40,000 by year's end, which would be a 16% gain from current levels.

By the deadline of January 10, JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists, including Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, stated in a note that they anticipate multiple spot Bitcoin ETFs to be approved by the SEC. They claimed that "any failure could lead to lawsuits against the SEC, creating even more legal issues for the agency."

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